A hierarchical Bayesian model recently proposed in the literature has been adapted to model the actual number of Covid-19 cases in Spain by Autonomous Communities. The model is explained in our paper “Cumulated burden of Covid-19 in Spain from a Bayesian perspective“. Based on these estimates, this work allows us to accurately re-estimate the lethality of the disease in Spain, taking into account unreported cases. The results of this work show that the real load of Covid-19 in Spain in the period considered is well above the data registered by the public health system.
The model predicts a number of underreported cases in different confidence intervals, which are being compared with the number of observed, and official, cases declared by each autonomous comunity. The gap between observed and underreported cases is significative, being the latest two or three times more than the other.
The data will be upated each sunday since the model takes a few hours to finish the execution.