Days since 17 July 2020

Seed

Variables to include

N-S (black)

I0 (brown)

I1 (orange)

I2 (red)

I3 (magenta)

R (green)

Active (yellow)

D (gray)

Add random paths for one variable

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N-S

I0

I1

I2

I3

D

Number of simulated random paths

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200 Infected number Deceased number Select selected

Select the upper limit of cases axis

Magnification factor of the initial contagion rate

Evolution of the epidemics with constant contagious rate starting 17 July 2020, with simulated initial data resembling the situation in Uruguay

by Enrique M. Cabaña

It is assumed that the individuals in a population of size N (=3000000) follow independent paths of the Markov chain indicated in the diagram above. Next plots allow to compare tree different scenarios, corresponding to alternative estimations based on the available data for the initial period of the disease (3/7 to 7/17).